让你半个小时完成introduction
发布时间:2023-03-23 15:41:21

写出一个好的开头可以升华论文的整体基调,今天就来给大家分享一下如何在半小时内搞定它~

我们先来了解一下introduction的目的:

-起到一个简单介绍的作用:研究背景、研究主题、研究内容、目的和方法。

-起到一个吸引读者,让读者有兴趣继续阅读下去的作用

introduction的结构:

1、大背景+小背景:三四句话即可

2、简要描述limitation

3、简要介绍文章的内容:有几部分?每一部分用一句话简要概述;最好可以把它们按照在文章正文中出现的顺序排列。

4、Thesis statement:文章的主旨句,用精炼的语言概括性的总结

最后整理了一份高分dissertation example,可以参考学习它的结构,需要的同学继续看。

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1.Introduction背景

Since the outbreak of the financial crisis, the global pool of government bonds with a triple Arating has shrunk by more than 60%, leading the Financial Times to conclude that thisshrinkage [...] is part of a dramatic redrawing of the world credit ratings map, which isencouraging investment flows into emerging markets(Atkins and Fray, 2013). Academia hasattributed the tightening of emerging market spreads’ to three factors relating to soundmacroeconomic policies (Ciarlone et al., 2009), higher commodity prices (Hartelius et al., 2008)and the development of capital markets (Baldwin, 2006).

However, recent political developments like the expropriation of the Spanish oil firm YPF inArgentina (Webber, 2013) and the Egyptian economy facing collapse (Economist, 2013) showthat political risk remains a factor to reckon with when investing in emerging-market economies.Against the backdrop of this development, this rlissertation sets out to analyse the determinantsof the sovereign spreads for a sample covering 45 countries for the period of 1994 to 2010.The main contribution of this dissertation is to overcome a shortcoming of the previous literatureon the constituent factors of sovereign spreads by employing a forward-looking measure ofpolitical risk, The most commonly used measures of political risk in the literature are outcomebased measures, that is they are ex-post in their nature, thereby they do not match the forward简要介绍本文的内容looking nature of the sovereign spread.

The rest of the dissertation is organised as follows. Section 2 discusses (recent) findings in theliterature on the determinants of sovereign spreads in emerging market economies. Section 3explains the link between the sovereign spread and political risk. The research design is outlinedin section 4, while section 5 covers the empirical analysis and its results. Section 6 providesadditional analyses.Section 7 concludes.

2.Literature Review

In the following section, the academic discourse on the determinants of sovereign spreads will becritically assessed. Within this section a special focus will be laid upon emerging marketeconomies. I chose the literature on this topic as the key ones for this section, since the choice ofliterature will reflect the angle of my subsequent analysis?

2.1 Key Determinants of Sovereign SpreadsWithin the realm of literature focusing on the determinants of sovereign spreads in general, andin emerging market economies in particular, there is a significant amount of variability withregards to the selected data, the statistical models and the underlying frameworks usedUnsurprisingly, the empirical results obtained also differ widely. However, broadly speakingthere are four different groups of factors which have been singled out by academia: the fiscalpolicy (stance) of a country, global factors, macroeconomic fundamentals and political orcountry-risk factors.

2.1.1 Fiscal Factors

The theoretical rationale of arguing for the importance of fiscal factors in determining thesovereign spread is as follows: A fiscal deficit absorbs private domestic savings and is seen to beindicative of a government which is unwilling or unable to tax its citizenry accordingly to covelcurrent expenses or to service its debt (Cantor and Packer, 1997, pp.39-40).

Akitoby and Stratmann provide the most thorough account on fiscal factors as determinants ofsovereign spreads (2008). The authors find evidence for the level of government revenue and thelevel of current expenditure being statistically different from zero in determining the level ofsovereign spreads (2008, p.1979). Interestingly, the authors test the impact of institutionalquality on sovereign spreads via several fiscal variables. In line with the academic discourse, theauthors test for the impact of the electoral system, systems of government and the impact ofelectoral cycles on sovereign spreads via the fiscal policy. All else being equal, fiscal expansionleads to higher spreads in countries governed by a majoritarian electoral system as opposed to aproportional electoral system’(2008, p.1981). Hallerberg and Wolff also stress the link betweenfiscal institutions and sovereign spreads focusing on the European Monetary Union - a result thatseems intuitive against the backdrop of the euro crisis (2008). Several other authors also find evidence for the negative impact" of sound fiscal policy on sovereign spreads (Dailami et al..2005,p.17).

2.1.2 Global Factors

In contrast to Min (1998), Dailami et al. (2005) offer evidence that global financial factors doexert influence over sovereign spreads. The authors employ the US interest rate policy as a proxyfor the global monetary conditions affecting sovereign spreads. While the authors find asignificant impact of the US interest rate policy on emerging market bond spreads, the authorsstress the need to allow for non-linearities: the impact of the US interest rate policy is dependentupon the countries’debt levels (2005, pp.24-27). Rozada and Yeyati (2008) find that the level ofglobal risk appetite, as proxied by high-yield spreads in developed markets, and the level ofinternational liqudity, as proxied by US Treasury-bills with a 10-year constant maturity yieldaccount for circa 30 per cent of the long-run variability of emerging market spreads, whereasthese two factors account for between 15 and 23 per cent in the short-run, While the authors dostress the importance of global factors, they argue that macroeconomic fundamentals drive thelevel of exposure to global factors, which in tyn determine the sovereign spread levels (2006p.5). However, Kamin and von Kleist fail to find a robust, statistically significant relationshipbetween various measures of industrial country interest rates and emerging market new-issuebond spreads (1999, p.26-41). Employing a factor analysis, Ciarlone et al. (2009) also concludethat global factors trump macroeconomic fundamentals in determining sovereign spreads

2.1.3 Macroeconomic Fundamentals

Examining the probability of default for 19 countries over the period of four years, Edwardsmakes a case for the importance of the overall debt level and the level of international reservesrelative to GNP as the key determinants of sovereign spreads (Edwards, 1984, p.732). Min(1998) follows Edwards by arguing that macroeconomic fundamentals trump global factorsThese macroeconomic fundamentals include the inflation rate, the terms of trade, and the realexchange rate, while global factors proxied by the real oil price and the three-month US Treasurbill rate are not significant in explaining sovereign spreads in Min's analysis (1998, pp.13-14).

2.1.4 Political / Country-risk Factors

Seminal articles stressing the importance of political and / or country-risk factors have picked upsteam in the last couple of years. However, it is still the most marginalised stream of the four.